[Book Summary] Guns, Germs, and Steel--From Eden to Cajamarca

The Core Arguments

1. The author examines the vast sweep of human history, from the divergence of our lineage from African apes 7 million years ago to the colonization of the last remaining islands within the past 700 years. This perspective highlights the difficulty of predicting continental development if history were rewound to 11,000 B.C.
2. The author uses the Moriori and Maori societies as a natural experiment. These Polynesian cultures share a common ancestry but diverge on separate islands (New Zealand and Chatham Islands). This allows the author to argue that environmental factors, such as climate, geology, resources, island size, isolation, and fragmentation, significantly influence human development. These environmental variations, in turn, are linked to differences in economic specialization, social complexity, political organization, and material culture.
3. The author discusses the proximate causes of variation in human development, such as guns, steel weapons, and horses; infectious diseases in Eurasia; European maritime technology; the centralized political organization of European states; and writing through a historical event in 1532 when the Spanish conquistador Francisco Pizarro captured the Inca emperor Atahuallpa.

Key Points

Argument 1

• African apes diverged from the lineage, leading to humans around 7 million years ago. At least 5 million more years passed before the first members of our species appeared on any other continent. The author argues that if this counted for anything, Africa enjoyed enormous advantages.
• Eurasia is the world's largest landmass and has been occupied by humans for the longest time, except for Africa. Famous artworks and complex tools were found in southwestern Europe. The author argues that we could have made a strong case for Eurasia as well.
• The Americas, although the last continent to be colonized, required a short time for humans to adapt to local conditions. The headstart of Africa accounted for nothing. Thereafter, the greater area and environmental diversity would have given the Americas an advantage. The author argues that we could have made a strong case for the Americas as well.
• Australia and New Guinea, although they were the smallest continents, were later occupied, covered by desert, and isolated; Australians and New Guineans had the earliest watercraft in the world. They were creating cave paintings at least as early as the Cro-Magnons in Europe, and the colonization from the Asian continental shelf required humans to learn to deal with the new environment. The author argues that we could have made a strong case for Australia and New Guinea as well.
• Chapter 1 also offers a brief overview of human history, although it is not the main focus. I have attached a timeline of human history for reference:

Argument 2

• Both the Maori and Moriori societies originated from the same Polynesian ancestors. The Maori settled in New Zealand around A.D. 1000. Those Maori, in turn, colonized the Chatham Islands and became the Moriori. In December 1835, the Maori invaded the Chatham Islands and killed or enslaved the Moriori.

• The author demonstrates the cause-and-effect relationship between environmental factors and human development

Argument 3

• At the battle of Cajamarca in 1532, 168 Spaniards defeated 80,000 Inca warriors and captured the Inca emperor Atahuallpa. There were four battles at Jauja, Vilcashuaman, Vilcaconga, and Cuzco, which involved a mere 80, 30, 110, and 40 Spanish horsemen, respectively, against thousands or tens of thousands of Indians.

Analysis and So What?

• This passage inspires me to consider the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Does humanity's longer existence give us a head start? If longevity were the sole factor, African peoples would have conquered America. The immediate causes of variation in human development may also apply to potential differences between AI and humans. For example, AI may possess superior military advantages such as faster reaction times, more accurate targeting, and higher physical limits. In fact, AI has already surpassed humans in dogfighting [^1]. Additionally, AI has mastered human language, as seen in recent LLM advancements. This allows AI to access, store, and transmit knowledge. AI may even develop organisational abilities. Some AI researchers believe that multi-agent collaboration is a crucial direction for AI research [^2]. Computer viruses and malware pose a threat to AI, as infectious diseases do to humans. However, AI development is also constrained by environmental factors like limited data, insufficient computational power, and energy shortages. Ultimately, the future may hold a competition between biological and silicon-based species.
• This also brings to mind Elon Musk's vision of making humanity a multiplanetary species, echoing the maritime technology that empowered the Spanish. However, the outcome of encountering new environments, or even alien civilizations, remains uncertain. For all we know, a civilization like the Inca could prove more advanced than our own.
• I also contemplated the utility of chiefs, kings, governors, or corporate managers. In the book's terms, they are 'nonproducers' who rely on the output of producers. Yet, a political organization holds advantages over a decentralized one. The function of a political organization seems to be resource allocation. For example, the Spanish monarchy funded ships and expeditions to other continents. Resource allocators can balance exploration (with its unknown potential) against exploitation (of known resources), as well as immediate versus future needs. Additionally, the rule of law serves as a method of resource allocation, discouraging certain behaviors and guiding people's energies in desired directions.

References

• [^1] AI Bests Human Fighter Pilot in AlphaDogfight Trial at Johns Hopkins APL
• [^2] What's next for AI agentic workflows ft. Andrew Ng of AI Fund