AI
While forecasting how AI will impact my career in Consumer Lending Credit Risk Management (Article Link), I explored the timeline forecast methodology used in AI 2027. Prerequisites Time Horizon The concept of time horizon, proposed by the Model Evaluation & Threat Research (METR) team, states that the "50%-task-completion
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Recently, I've been exploring the theory of computation. With the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence—essentially a vast collection of algorithms and computational instructions designed to process inputs and generate outputs—I find myself increasingly curious about the fundamental capabilities and limitations of computation itself. Concepts such as
Background Recently, I have been exploring AI 2027 a detailed month-by-month forecast of artificial intelligence advancements through 2027. This resource offers a comprehensive framework outlining how AI is expected to evolve over the next three years. Inspired by this approach, I aim to conduct a similar thought experiment focused specifically
In the offline cellphone-loan business, we have observed that default risk increases with the premium features of the device used during loan application. For example, borrowers applying with phones that have larger storage capacities tend to show higher default rates—counter to the intuitive expectation that “better” devices signal lower
Have you ever clearly explained your viewpoint, watched the other person nod in apparent agreement, and then discovered—hours or days later—that nothing changed? I've experienced this many times, and it taught me an important lesson: communication isn't a single-step process. For words to drive
The "Liberation Day" tariffs represent a significant shift in global economic policy, marking a pivotal moment in international trade relations. To fully grasp the underlying causes and far-reaching impacts of these tariffs, it is essential to employ robust mental models that clarify complex economic, political, and geopolitical dynamics.
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Building neural networks often feels like magic. We import libraries like PyTorch or TensorFlow, stack some layers, call .fit(), and voilà! But what's happening under the hood? To truly understand concepts like backpropagation, I decided to follow Andrej Karpathy's fantastic 'nn-zero-to-hero' series and build
搞金融的人应该对利息的概念并不陌生，各类贴现的计算方式可以变得异常复杂。行业内大部分人关注如何运用利息的概念去创造财富，却很少从行为解释的角度深入探讨。最近两年，我阅读费雪的利息理论颇有收获，于是结合自己的理解，整理出了一份文章。 张五常的《经济解释》是我多年前大学时期购买的书籍，距今已有七八年。当时只能勉强理解第一卷中关于科学方法、分工和需求的内容，这部分与亚当·斯密的《国富论》相似。然而，当读到第二卷涉及利息、宏观经济学与财富等较为复杂的内容时，由于难以理解，便中途放弃了。 最近回香港老家，偶然翻阅起这套书，重新激发了我对利息理论的兴趣。这一次重读利息理论部分，我不仅真正理解了内容，也进一步加深了对费雪理论的认识。 利息、风险与交易费用 作者指出，现实生活中存在五花八门的利率，如存款利率、贷款利率、长短期利率和高利贷利率等。这些利率的差异主要源于两个因素： * 通货膨胀预期：市场对未来货币价值的预期影响利率水平。例如，通胀预期升高会导致利率上涨；长期利率一般高于短期利率，这是因为长期未来货币贬值风险较大。扣除通胀预期后得到的「实质利率」(real rate of in
I've recently been reflecting deeply on an important question: what exactly am I busying myself for? To understand this better, I started using Toggl, a time-tracking tool, to log my daily activities. This exercise quickly revealed that a significant portion of my perceived busyness comes from frequent distractions.
Personal Blog and Reflections
Recently, I've started noticing the benefits of quickly picking things up and putting them down again. It's like having a fast startup and shut-down time for my mind, making it easier to switch smoothly between tasks or ideas. Usually, my mind jumps around a lot, juggling
The Kelly criterion is one of the most influential strategies in betting and investing for determining how much of your bankroll to wager when you believe you have an edge. In this post, we'll cover the traditional formula, derive it step by step, and introduce an alternative formulation
引言 唐代（618-907年）是中国历史上政治制度高度发达的时期之一，其制度在继承汉代的基础上进行了重大创新。唐代的政府组织、考试制度、经济制度和兵役制度共同支撑了一个强大的中央集权帝国。然而，这些制度在演变中也暴露出一系列弊端，最终影响了唐朝的兴衰。本文档将系统分析唐代政治制度的各个方面，探讨其特点、演变过程及历史意义。 一、政府组织 1. 中央政府：三省六部制 * 结构： * 中书省：负责起草政令，相当于皇帝的"笔杆子"。 * 门下省：负责审核政令，拥有"封驳"权以监督决策。 * 尚书省：负责执行政令，下设六部（吏、户、礼、兵、刑、工），分管具体行政事务。 * 决策机制： * 三省分工明确，相权被分散，避免了汉代"一人独大"
汉代是中国历史上一个关键时期，标志着中国从封建制向中央集权制的转变。这一转变始于秦代的奠基，并在汉代的延续与完善中得以巩固。本文将从政府组织、选举制度、经济制度和兵役制度四个方面详细分析汉代政治制度，并对其得失进行检讨，以期全面理解这一时期的政治特征及其历史意义。 一、汉代政府组织 皇室与政府的划分 汉代继承秦制，进一步明确了皇室与政府的职权划分。皇帝作为政治领袖，皇位世袭，但实际行政权力主要掌握在丞相手中。皇帝的秘书机构“尚书”最初仅负责私人事务，地位较低；丞相则设有“十二曹”，负责广泛的政务，表明实际权力集中于相府，而非皇室。这种设计体现了从封建“家国一体”向中央集权“公私分离”的过渡。 中央政府 中央政府设有“三公”和“九卿”。“三公”包括： * 丞相：行政首长，掌控政府实权； * 太尉：负责军事事务； * 御史大夫：负责监察。 其中，丞相地位最高，实际管理国家政务。九卿最初多为皇室家务官（如太常掌祭祀、
最近读到一篇讲稿前言，探讨中国历代政治得失。作者为一系列讲座（共五次）构建了清晰的框架，聚焦汉、唐、宋、明、清五朝，意在勾勒中国传统政治制度的演变与成败。这篇前言不仅展示了他的治学方法，也体现了在面对纷繁复杂的历史时所做出的逻辑取舍。以下是我的解读与总结。 【一、目标与挑战：从全貌到五朝】 文章开篇即明确核心目标：通过五次讲座探讨中国历代政治得失。鉴于中国政治变迁浩繁无边，若做全面统计将无从下手，而逐朝详述又受限于时间，故作者选择以汉、唐、宋、明、清作为代表。这五个朝代不仅是中国历史的关键节点，更概括了政治制度演变的整体脉络。与此同时，他将政治分析划分为“人事”（多变）与“制度”（稳定）两个方面，并偏重于后者，认为制度虽由人创立，但它能够规范人事，从而具备更强的系统性。不过，作者也坦言：如果不将制度放入适当的历史语境中讨论，便只会沦为枯燥无味的条文。 【二、方法论核心：七点原则】 为避免流于空洞的分析，作者提出了“
My recent three-week trip through Shenzhen, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, a mix of business and leisure, kept me from updating my blog and fully engaging with my more ambitious plans. While I had initially planned to keep my year's objectives private, a key action item for
Link to the article: https://www.anthropic.com/research/building-effective-agents One Paragraph Summary Agents are systems where Large Language Models (LLMs) dynamically direct their own processes and tool usage, maintaining control over how they accomplish tasks. They can start with a command or interactive discussion, and then gain "ground
Yuval Noah Harari's Nexus offers a compelling new lens for understanding human history and our current predicament: the analysis of information networks. Harari argues that understanding how information connects people and things, rather than focusing solely on technological advancements, is key. He emphasizes that information's power
As 2024 draws to a close, many companies are immersed in strategic planning for the coming year. I've recently participated in several such meetings and have found myself reflecting on the differences between corporate and individual planning. This reflection has led me to consider how we can apply
When I decided to create a Slack bot to remind me of my due Anki flashcards, I didn’t find the concept intimidating. The steps—accessing Anki’s data, posting to Slack, and setting up a cron job—were all within my capability. However, I’m not a seasoned software
AI tools have opened up a world of possibilities, enabling us to accomplish tasks more efficiently and creatively. Here are some of the exciting things I've tried recently with AI: 1. Create a Webpage with Just a Chatbox Using tools like Cursor, you can: * Build a webpage by
Example Consider the following scenario: * The probability that a person has a disease is 0.01. * The probability that a person with the disease tests positive is 0.90. * The probability that a person without the disease tests positive is 0.10. Question: What is the probability that a person
